TD & CIBC Predict that Bank of Canada will cut rates by another 1.75% by the end of 2025. What other three banks say?

Prediction 2024

The Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered its main interest rate by a quarter of a point on 24 July 2024. The overnight rate target now stands at 4.5%, down from 5.0% two months ago. In addition, BoC governor Tiff Macklem signaled that further rate cuts are likely. Economists expect one or two more cut this year.

Prediction 2025

TD Bank and CIBC Prediction

Both predicting that the Bank of Canada will cut rates by another 175 bps by the end of 2025. In other words, overnight target rate back down to 2.75% by the end of next year.

RBC Prediction

RBC projects a 3% overnight target rate by Q4 2025.

Scotia Bank Prediction

Scotiabank expects the central bank would reduce its overnight rate to 3.25% by the end of 2025.

BMO Prediction

BMO predicts that the Bank of Canada would lower rates by just one percentage point

(100 bps) more by the end of 2025, that is, overnight rate of 3.50%.

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